By Lisa YatesEditor, The Times
After the Nov. 4 election, lake area Republicans decided to take a look at how America elected to the presidency Barack Hussein Obama – the son of a Kenyan immigrant.
Eight years ago, no matter what your party affiliation or political persuasion, would you have believed it possible? Probably not.
That's why members of the Republican Roundtable of Lake Charles made this the topic of their noon meeting, Nov. 14, at Reeves Uptown Catering on Ryan Street.
Leading McNeese State University specialists in accounting, finance and economics analyzed the Nov. 4 presidential election and presented a program entitled: “The Obama Promise: Analysis and Policy Implications.”
The speakers addressed what the election results told attendees about the economic, racial, gender and foreign affairs issues that figured prominently in the campaign, and what remains at the top of the agenda.
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Republican Roundtable Co-chairs Terry Backhaus,Pam Mattingly and Bob Dewey, (front row, L-R), welcome guest speakers McNeese State University Dept. of Accounting, Finance and Economics faculty: Salvador Contreras, Ph.D.; Michael Kurth, Ph.D.; and, Bob Dewey, Ph.D.
Speakers included Mike Kurth, Ph. D., a professor of economics who heads the department at MSU; Daryl Burckel, Ph. D., a professor of accounting and specialist on demographics; and, Salvador Contreras, Ph. D., an assistant professor of economics who specializes in research and technology.
Black voters
“Do not delude yourself – Obama did not win because of black voters,” Kurth said. “That's not to say that racism is dead. Racism is not dead and there were some voters who went to the polls just to vote against the black guy. But 75 percent of his votes came from outside of the African American community.”
In the interest of full disclosure, Kurth admitted a bias – he and Burckel are both Republicans, while Contreras is a Democrat, who supported Obama, he said.
“That makes our presentation fair and balanced,” he joked.
Kurth said he did not vote for U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, but instead supported U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas for president. He spoke openly, sharing his opinions and backing these with data displayed on a large screen in the room during the multi-media presentation.
One of the graphics displayed was a large bell-shaped curve named the “Median Voter Model.” Kurth said the model illustrates the challenge faced by both candidates in the 2008 election.
“The key to getting elected is to capture the group in the middle,” he said. “Whoever gets to the center first – after the primaries – wins.”
Kurth said Obama played to the middle more effectively than McCain. Obama's ability to win this large middle group surprised a lot of people.
Never underestimate your opponent
“Just like in football games, never underestimate your opponent,” Kurth told the crowd.
Although Democrats outnumbered Republicans, Kurth said party affiliation wasn't a key factor to Obama winning. Instead, voters consider a wide range of issues when they cast their ballots.
“For example, after the terrorist attack on 9/11, more voters identified themselves as Republicans,” he said. “There's been a steady decline afterwards.”
Kurth used another example to make his point. While many black and Hispanic voters are registered as Democrats, he said, a large number in these communities are not sympathetic to gay marriage and voted to end it in California.
“Forty percent of voters don't identify with either party and tend to vote independently – Many of these are conservative voters,” he said. “That's why to win, you have to capture the independent voter; and, that didn't happen in this election.”
Kurth said one issue, and one issue alone, dominated the 2008 presidential election – the economy.
He said the Republican Party dropped the ball on this issue when they had a chance to pick it up and run.
“The bailout plan was the stupidest thing I ever saw,” Kurth said. “This was an opportunity the Republicans should have seized.”
The Republicans had their chance when they controlled both the Congress and Presidency. So now that President-elect Obama is in office, what can we expect?
Really scary
Burckel painted a bleak picture he called “really scary.”
That's not so much a result of the election, but rather, a result of huge deficit spending over the past decade, he noted.
“The budget is pretty much on autopilot,” Burckel said.
He said the Senate's huge rescue package raised the national debt to $10.6 trillion. That, coupled with rising health care costs, are reasons why Burckel and others believe the nation is on an unsustainable fiscal course.
In fact, federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid alone is expected to jump 30 percent in the next decade – from 4.6 percent of the GDP (gross domestic product) to 6 percent in 2018. By 2050, it could jump to 12 percent of the GDP.
“We are in a permanent state of unbalance in our budget,” he said.
Campaign promises
With the economy in disarray and the nation's treasury draining, many are skeptical Obama can make good on his campaign promises.
Contreras crunched the numbers and presented to the group some of the conclusions of his research.
Obama promised to improve America's education system. Can he do it?
His education plan outlined $8 billion for recruiting, performance pay and other initiatives to update the education law known as No Child Left Behind. But his plan also offered grand proposals for every level of education, including a $4,000 tuition tax credit that would make college more affordable for millions of students and a $10 billion expansion of early childhood programs.
The challenge will be how to finance all these proposals, according to Contreras.
“I'm not sure how he's going to make good on this promise,” he said.
Obama also promised to invest $150 billion over 10 years to develop renewable sources of energy, like wind, solar and biofuels, and to encourage energy conservation in homes and offices. He also promised to help the auto industry to develop high-mileage and electric cars.
“I think he'll do good in this particular promise,” Contreras said.
The future of the nation's economy
He was not so optimistic when it came to the future of the economy.
“From all indications, the U.S. Is in very bad shape,” Contreras said, adding that unemployment numbers are beginning to climb.
“Things look bleak,” he said. “Prices are the only thing that are stable. Gas is at $2 a gallon, and oil is $56 a barrel.”
Many who voted for Obama are hopeful that he will deliver on his campaign promises, but if our local economists are correct, Obama's agenda just doesn't add up.
Only time will tell.
